WIND + SUN = POWER: Trends and Developments in the Electricity Sector

The first quarter of 2026 was characterized by strong expansion figures, profound regulatory adjustments, and an electricity market that is more dynamic than ever due to hours with negative prices, rising flexibility demands, and growing competition in individual tenders.

The first part highlights the current development of renewable energies and battery storage, followed by a look at market prices and negative price hours. This is followed by a classification of the EEG tender results from the Federal Network Agency.

Subsequently, an overview of current political developments is provided: from the current status of the smart meter rollout, to adjustments in the grid connection procedure and changes in redispatch remuneration according to the leaked “grid package,” to the current working status of the EEG 2027. In short: This update shows which regulatory changes are being planned and how they will affect project developers, operators, investors, and marketers in the future.¹

Development of RE Expansion / Battery Storage

In the first quarter of 2026, the public net electricity generation in Germany amounted to 125.2 TWh. The share of renewable energies was 54.4% (68.2 TWh). Compared to Q1 2025, in which 112.4 TWh were generated – of which 52.2% (58.7 TWh) came from renewables – this represents an increase in absolute renewable energy generation of 16.2%. On the one hand, this is due to the increase in electricity generated from wind energy from 33.2 TWh (33.1%) in Q1 2025 to 42.7 TWh (34.1%) in Q1 2026 (an increase of 28.6%). Wind energy is thus the leading energy source. On the other hand, electricity generation from photovoltaics increased by 4.6% compared to the first quarter of the previous year (Q1 2025: 11 TWh (9.8%), Q1 2026: 11.5 TWh (9.2%).² This places photovoltaics in fourth place among the most important energy sources in the first quarter of 2026, behind wind power, natural gas, and lignite.³

In the first quarter of 2026, a net photovoltaic expansion (solar DC) of 3.3 gigawatts (GW) was recorded, corresponding to an average monthly expansion of approximately 1.1 GW. This development is slightly below the previous year’s level (4.3 GW). To achieve the expansion target of 128 GW by the end of 2026, approximately 6.5 GW are still missing, which is realistic at the current pace. The net expansion of onshore wind energy in the first quarter of 2026 was 0.8 GW, matching the previous year’s level (previous year’s period: 0.8 GW).⁴ Thus, approximately 14.9 GW remain to reach the interim target of 84 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2026. To reach this limit, greater efforts are required in the expansion of onshore wind energy plants.⁵

According to Battery Charts, battery storage expansion in the first quarter of 2026 amounted to 1.13 GW / 2 GWh (Q1 2025: 1.61 GW / 1.45 GWh). In March 2026, the cumulative capacity of battery storage was 17.94 GW and the cumulative capacity was 27.29 GWh.⁶

Developments in the Electricity Market

After the market value of solar reached its 11-month peak in January at 11.019 ct/kWh, similar to 2025 (Jan 2025: 11.511 ct/kWh), it fell significantly below the previous year’s level in February at 7.717 ct/kWh (Feb 2025: 11.099 ct/kWh). In March, it was similarly low at 5.455 ct/kWh as in 2025 (Mar 2025: 5.027 ct/kWh).

The market value of onshore wind was slightly above (9.536 ct/kWh) in January, below (8.723 ct/kWh) in February, and at the same level (7.537 ct/kWh) in March as the market values in the same quarter of the previous year (2025: 8.506 ct/kWh, 11.591 ct/kWh, 7.513 ct/kWh).⁷

After there were no hours with negative electricity prices in November and December 2025, these increased slightly in the first quarter of 2026: in January and February, the number was still quite low with 4 and 7 hours respectively. In March, however, the hours with negative electricity prices rose to 35 hours. In total (46 hours), this number is at a similar level to the first quarter of 2025 (44 hours).

Hours with negative electricity prices mostly occurred around midday – i.e., during the hours when PV systems in Germany typically produce electricity.⁸

Please insert electricity price graphic here.

Development of the average spot market price, market values, and the number of hours with negative prices (Source: own representation based on data from Netztransparenz.de⁹)

The occurrence of negative electricity prices particularly affects the economic viability of new photovoltaic and wind energy plants in subsidized direct marketing. The background is that operators only receive subsidies under the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) for electricity quantities fed in during periods with non-negative prices. Accordingly, the respective business case should consider not only the generated quantity but also the actually marketable electricity quantity, i.e., the share of feed-in that can occur during times of non-negative prices.

At the same time, there are indications that the number of negative prices could decrease in the medium term. These include, among other things, the Solar Peak Law introduced at the beginning of 2025, which does not provide subsidies for new EEG plants at negative prices, as well as the increasing expansion of flexibility options such as storage and demand-side flexibilities.

Overview: Federal Network Agency Tenders for Receiving EEG Subsidies

The results of the first EEG tender rounds in February for 2026, both for the second segment of solar rooftop systems and for onshore wind energy, confirm the trend of previous rounds.

In the second segment of solar rooftop systems from 1 MW, 85 projects with a total of approximately 155 MW were awarded. The tender was significantly undersubscribed: of the 283 MW tendered, 128 MW remained without an award. The maximum value of 10.00 ct/kWh received an award; the lowest bid value was 7.88 ct/kWh. The average, volume-weighted award value decreased by 0.1 ct/kWh compared to the last tender round, to 9.56 ct/kWh.¹⁰ The currently high award values and low competition in the second segment mean that large PV rooftop systems can represent attractive investment opportunities. However, due to the upcoming EEG reform (cf. also subsequent explanations in the article), this “window of opportunity” is likely to be limited in time. Further information on the business model with large PV rooftop systems from 1 MW can be found in the following article.

The tender for onshore wind energy was again heavily oversubscribed. 924 projects with approximately 7,860 MW faced a tendered volume of 3,445 MW. Due to high competition, the maximum value of 7.25 ct/kWh was not awarded. The award values ranged between 5.19 and 5.64 ct/kWh; the average decreased to 5.54 ct/kWh compared to the last tender round – about 0.5 ct/kWh less than in the previous round. Most awards went to Lower Saxony (957 MW), North Rhine-Westphalia (661 MW), and Saxony-Anhalt (483 MW), which together received almost 60% of the total volume.¹¹

Federal Minister of Economics Katharina Reiche announced at the end of March that an additional 12 GW of onshore wind energy would be tendered by 2030.¹² In addition, the Bundesrat, at the initiative of Bavaria, is calling for an additional 5 GW to be tendered in the current year.¹³ The announced additional 12 GW are intended to meet the EEG expansion target of 115 GW by 2030 (current installed capacity: 69 GW).¹⁴

Please insert the table with the tender results here.

Table 1: Results of the first EEG tender rounds 2026 by the Federal Network Agency (Source: Federal Network Agency¹⁵)

Overview: Politics

Smart Meter Rollout
The Metering Point Operation Act provides for the mandatory installation of smart metering systems for metering points with an annual consumption exceeding 6,000 kWh as well as for controllable consumption devices according to § 14a EnWG. A first target quota of 20% of all mandatory installations was set for the end of 2025.

Considering all metering points with mandatory installation in Germany, a total quota of 23.3% was achieved by the deadline of December 31, 2025. While individual basic metering point operators have already implemented 100% of the mandatory conversions, the quota for others remains at 0%.

For this reason, the BNetzA initiated proceedings against 77 companies at the end of March, which, according to the authority’s figures, have not yet started the rollout. As part of these proceedings, the BNetzA sets a penalty payment, the amount of which depends, among other things, on the economic performance in individual cases and is determined at its discretion.

If all over 56 million metering points in Germany are considered, approximately 3 million are already equipped with a smart metering system. This corresponds to a quota of about 5.5%.¹⁶

The smart meter rollout is a central prerequisite for further market and system integration, as it is the only way to implement time-variable electricity tariffs, flexible load control, and sector coupling with heat and mobility in a technically and regulatorily sensible manner.

Grid Connection & Redispatch
In addition to decentralized electricity generation plants and battery storage systems (BESS), the electricity grid is increasingly coming into focus as a flexible option in the course of the energy transition. Although renewable energy plants enjoy a

priority and immediate grid connection (§ 8 para. 1 EEG 2023), grid operators are not allowed to charge a construction cost contribution (BKZ) for EEG and KraftNAV plants (§ 17 EEG 2023 and § 8 para. 3 KraftNAV). At the same time, feed-in can be curtailed by grid operators in the event of grid bottlenecks, for which plant operators have so far received financial compensation (§ 13a EnWG). This regulation initially applied to plants from 10 MW, but was extended to plants from 100 kW in the course of Redispatch 2.0 in 2021.¹⁷ Furthermore, especially for BESS, the first-come, first-served principle (“Windhundprinzip”) has applied to grid connection, which, given the high number of connection applications, has effectively led to a connection backlog.

Against this background, new regulations were already introduced last year with the “Solar Peak Law”.¹⁸ Flexible Connection Agreements (FCAs) enable the timely connection of PV systems, large consumers, and especially BESS, despite limited grid capacities, by allowing projects to be realized with static or (fully) dynamic power limitations even without immediate grid expansion. For project developers, FCAs open up new opportunities for the economic implementation of co-location approaches and the early integration of BESS, while grid bottlenecks and redispatch interventions can be reduced. FCAs are to be understood as contractual pre-restrictions on grid connection and are to be distinguished from redispatch actions in ongoing grid operation.¹⁹

Another turning point is the recently leaked draft bill from the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (the so-called “Grid Package”). Through greater digitization and transparency of grid connection procedures, planning and approval processes are to be significantly accelerated.²⁰ At the same time, the draft bill provides for a departure from the previous first-come, first-served principle to avoid speculative connection applications and to specifically reserve grid connection capacities for prioritized, serious projects. Transmission and distribution system operators are to prioritize connection requests in the future based on transparent and non-discriminatory criteria and reserve capacities for a limited period and linked to project milestones. In this context, the maturity level procedure for evaluating grid connection applications on the transmission grid was introduced on April 1, 2026.²¹

In addition to these approaches, which are generally to be welcomed from the perspective of a serious project developer, the draft bill also contains critical aspects. On the one hand, the possibility is opened to levy a BKZ for new EEG and KraftNAV plants. On the other hand, the draft provides for new regulations on redispatch: distribution system operators can designate so-called “capacity-limited grid areas” for ten years if more than three percent of the technically possible feed-in was curtailed in the previous year due to grid overload. In these areas, there will then be a priority grid expansion mandate, but at the same time, new plants would be subject to a redispatch reservation, which provides for the waiver of compensation payments in the event of curtailment.²²

Finally, it should be noted that the present regulatory framework is still a draft bill, which has already triggered intensive technical and political discussion. The last word has not yet been spoken. It is particularly critical that the planned redispatch regulations do not differentiate between different generation technologies such as PV and wind, although in practice it makes a significant difference whether a PV plant is realized in a wind-dominated grid area or vice versa. The choice of location can thus become more than ever a central success factor for projects. In heavily burdened grid areas, the financability of many projects is likely to become more challenging, especially due to the elimination of compensation payments within the framework of Redispatch 2.0 actions and potentially future construction cost contributions. In addition, the grid tariff system is currently undergoing changes (“AgNes procedure”). A detailed legal assessment of the draft bill can be found in our article from February 18, 2026.

EEG Amendment
In February 2026, a current working status of the EEG 2027 was unofficially published. As expected and demanded by the European Commission, this draft includes the further development of the current support mechanism of the market premium by a production-dependent refinancing contribution. In the future, plant operators will continue to receive a market premium if the annual market value is below the applicable value – however, in times of high price phases (annual market value > applicable value), revenue skimming will occur. Further planned changes include the planned shift from PV rooftop systems to ground-mounted PV systems or the cancellation of subsidies for small PV systems. Detailed information on the currently planned refinancing contribution and other regulations can be found in our article from March 26, 2026.

Conclusion

In summary, energy policy continues to be characterized by high dynamism. The growing importance of battery storage in the energy system is accompanied by a flood of grid inquiries that grid operators can hardly process. The further development of the grid connection procedure and the implementation of FCAs represent a step in the right direction in this context. Meanwhile, however, there is high uncertainty regarding grid tariff systematics, BKZ, and redispatch reservations, which will have a major impact on the implementation of projects.

The current expansion figures illustrate that the energy transition is already underway. However, the progressive expansion of renewable energies requires a fundamental restructuring of the electricity system. The leaked working status of the new EEG serves as a preview for the upcoming EEG reform, which is eagerly awaited. Here, too, there is currently planning uncertainty, as the new support mechanism – in addition to further electricity price developments – is likely to have a decisive influence on the future development of renewable energy expansion.

Overall, the current phase is characterized by high regulatory uncertainty and project-specific framework conditions, so that generic solutions are hardly effective. In this environment, we are your trusted partner and trailblazer – we guide projects through the transformation phase in a structured, reliable, and future-proof manner. Please feel free to contact us with any questions.

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Sources and notes:

1 The series “WIND + SUN = ELECTRICITY” is updated in each issue of E|nEws. This article refers to events in the period from February 6, 2026, to April 21, 2026.
2 Pie charts for electricity generation | Energy-Charts (last accessed: April 20, 2026)
3 Bar charts for electricity generation | Energy-Charts (last accessed: April 20, 2026)
4 Installed capacity | Energy-Charts (last accessed: April 20, 2026)
5 § 4 EEG (2023)
6 Battery Charts – Data on stationary battery storage in Germany (last accessed: April 20, 2026)
7 Net Transparency > Renewable Energies and Levies > EEG > Transparency Requirements > Market Premium > Market Value Overview (last accessed: April 20, 2026)
8 Netztransparenz > Renewable Energies and Levies > EEG > Transparency Requirements > Market Premium > Negative Spot Market Price – Overview Tables (last accessed: April 20, 2026)
9 Net Transparency > Renewable Energies and Levies > EEG > Transparency Requirements > Market Premium > Market Value Overview (last accessed: April 21, 2026)
10 Federal Network Agency – Completed Tenders / Statistics
11 Federal Network Agency – Completed Tenders / Statistics
12 Installed capacity | Energy-Charts
13 Five federal states follow Bavaria’s initiative for an extra wind power tender round in 2026
14 Bundesrat – BundesratKOMPAKT – 1063rd Session
15 Federal Network Agency – Completed Tenders / Statistics and Federal Network Agency – Completed Tenders / Statistics
16 Federal Network Agency – Quarterly Surveys iMSys and Federal Network Agency – Press – Federal Network Agency initiates proceedings due to smart meter rollout failures
17 Federal Network Agency – Redispatch
18 From Bottleneck to Efficiency: Legal and Economic Perspectives on Flexible Connection Agreements | RÖDL
19 Federal Network Agency – Grid Connection – Terms
20 “Grid Package” of the BMWE: What the draft bill could mean for grid connection, Redispatch 2.0 and EE projects | RÖDL
21 Maturity Level Procedure Documentation
22 “Grid Package” of the BMWE: What the draft bill could mean for grid connection, Redispatch 2.0 and EE projects | RÖDL