Successfully investing in Poland

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Poland’s gross domestic product grew by 3.2 per cent compared to the same period in 2023, marking a significant economic acceleration that materialised at the end of last year. This growth, primarily driven by consumption, sets Poland apart from the rest of Europe. 

Analysts predict that the Polish economy will grow at a rate of around 3.4 per cent in 2025, which is clearly faster than in other developed Western European countries. This reflects Poland's solid macroeconomic foundations and effective fiscal and monetary policy.

Significant funding from the European Union remains crucial for sustaining this growth. When utilised effectively, it can drive further reforms, boost investment in innovation and new technologies, and accelerate the green transition.

The main challenge for German companies is Polish tax law and the fact that it is constantly changing. Starting an investment project in Poland involves several key decisions that have to be made at the very beginning of the investment process and have profound consequences later on, such as which legal form is the most appropriate. This determines the future tax implications and the investor's liability – for example, the CIT Act imposes tax on limited partnerships, thus leading to double taxation of profits earned by the general partner and limited partners. Yet another cause of difficulties is the amendment to the Polish Tax Act which changed the competent tax authorities for settling flat income tax (WHT) withheld from non-residents. 

Importantly, considerable incentives and facilities for companies have been introduced, such as preferential conditions for investment activities, i.e. the option to choose between two alternative taxation schemes (Estonian CIT or special investment fund). 

After a robust rebound in 2024, analysts predict the Polish economy will grow by around 3.4 per cent in 2025. Inflation forecasts are 3.6 per cent for 2025 and 2.8 per cent for 2026, promising a positive outlook for Poland, especially when compared to other developed European economies. Despite the unpredictable global geopolitics of the Trump era and its impact on the world economy, Poland is on a relatively stable path towards lower inflation, sustainable economic growth and seizing strategic opportunities in the region.

There are also some changes associated with the conflict in Ukraine – an influx of new workers and the relocation of many businesses from the East to Poland. Also the high level of support recently received by Poland from EU funds should greatly stimulate domestic reform, larger and smaller investments in the energy sector, in particular renewable energy, and attract broadly defined innovation by financing research and development activities. Renewable energy sources and other eco-friendly investments, e.g. in low-emission hydrogen production, should gain much significance. Optimistic scenarios suggest significant intensification of economic activity in some sectors, especially those favoured in the European Union, namely decarbonisation, power engineering, research and development of high technologies, digitalisation, robotisation and cybersecurity. 

The good news for the future of the Polish economy is that managers of large companies are paying more and more attention to the digital competencies of potential employees. Here, Poland has a solid technical infrastructure and a large pool of well-educated and talented engineers, IT specialists and technicians. The influx of Ukrainian citizens may also boost the supply of workers in Poland.

Beyond doubt, the major challenge for the government will be to bring inflation under control and stabilise interest rates so that the economic growth achieved in the past few years continues in spite of the temporary recession.​